Победят США — проиграет Россия. Почему мы не можем отсидеться | Игорь Шишкин и Руслан Сафаров

2026-10-10 · edited 2026-10-10

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ввод: война США–Израиль–Иран и главный вопрос для России
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три позиции в медиа: “не наша война”, “спасти Трампа”, “поражение Ирана”
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почему важно обсуждать именно влияние на Россию
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вставка-промо форума
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разбор тезиса “не наша война”: формально vs реально
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что будет при победе США: риски для регионов РФ
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Венесуэла как пример энергетической борьбы
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Иран как газовый гигант и стратегический узел
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почему Россия не может “отстраниться”
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сценарий: смена власти в Иране
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Иран как “государство-мост”
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Центральная Азия, ресурсы и геополитика
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исламский фактор как инструмент давления
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Каспий и военные риски
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Трамп vs демократы: есть ли разница
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главный тезис: США не должны победить
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о чём на самом деле война: нефть и газ
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петродоллар и расчёты вне доллара
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БРИКС и борьба за новую систему
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идея альтернативной валюты
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страх элит: куда уходить из доллара
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нефть, санкции и временная выгода РФ
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риск контроля рынка США
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зависимость России от нефтяной ренты
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стратегия США: ресурсы и экспансия
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итог: риски поражения Ирана для РФ
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может ли Иран выстоять без помощи
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экономическое истощение и кризис
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сценарий “раненого зверя”
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Трамп в ловушке
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риск распада Ирана
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экономические возможности для РФ
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коридор Север–Юг и рост рынков
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пример Китая и индустриального рывка
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итог: это не формально, но фактически “наша война”
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фактор Китая и возможный альянс
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вывод: без поддержки Ирану не выстоять
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